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Tweaking the Probability Algorithm


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As I sat here working on the favorable conditions algorithm, I began looking back at the reports users had posted from the late part of the season. And, I realized my computations were way out of the ballpark. Early on, I had noticed that there was about a 26% difference in Bt across a degree of latitude. As I began working the favorable conditions algorithm, this put a negative number at some higher latitudes. Then, I began combing through the 89 reports and noticed the number, per degree, was a lot lower. We are looking more at a 2-4% change across one degree. So, that is what I am going to work with as we prep to enter the next season of aurora watching. We will see how it goes and I will likely have to make some tweaks to the numbers, but I feel this is the best way to go. Instead of using one singular number, 26%, each value has its own adjustment factor. After all, they are all different in their own right, so why not?!

Feedback is crucial so, please, provide anything you can during the active season and I will work to make this THE best app for aurora watching/chasing!

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